Moment set selection for the SMM using simple machine learning

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Year: 2023
Volume: 212
Issue: C
Pages: 366-391

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper addresses the moment selection issue of the simulated method of moments, an estimation technique commonly applied to intractable agent-based models. We develop a simple machine learning extension reducing arbitrariness and automating the moment choice. Two algorithms are proposed: backward stepwise moment elimination and forward stepwise moment selection. The methodology is tested using simulations on a Markov-switching multifractal framework and two popular financial agent-based models with increasing complexity. We find that both algorithms can identify multiple moment sets that outperform all benchmark sets. Moreover, we achieve considerable in-sample estimation precision gains of up to 66 percent for agent-based models. Finally, an out-of-sample empirical exercise with S&P 500 data strongly supports the practical applicability of our methodology as the estimated models pass the validity test of overidentifying restrictions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jeborg:v:212:y:2023:i:c:p:366-391
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25