Falling Interest Rates and Credit Reallocation: Lessons from General Equilibrium

S-Tier
Journal: Review of Economic Studies
Year: 2025
Volume: 92
Issue: 4
Pages: 2197-2227

Authors (5)

Vladimir Asriyan (not in RePEc) Luc Laeven (European Central Bank) Alberto Martin (Barcelona School of Economics ...) Alejandro Van der Ghote (not in RePEc) Victoria Vanasco (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.609 = (α=2.01 / 5 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We show that in a canonical model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, financial frictions, and an imperfectly elastic supply of capital, a fall in the interest rate has an ambiguous effect on aggregate economic activity. In partial equilibrium, a lower interest rate raises aggregate investment both by relaxing financial constraints and by prompting relatively less productive entrepreneurs to invest. In general equilibrium, however, this higher demand for capital raises its price and crowds out investment by more productive entrepreneurs. When this reallocation is strong enough, a fall in the interest rate reduces aggregate output. A numerical exploration of the model suggests that this reallocation effect is quantitatively significant and—in response to persistent changes in the interest rate—stronger than the traditional balance-sheet channel. We provide evidence of the reallocation effect using U.S. firm-level data.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:restud:v:92:y:2025:i:4:p:2197-2227.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-25