Federal reserve private information and the stock market

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2019
Volume: 106
Issue: C
Pages: 34-49

Authors (2)

Lakdawala, Aeimit (Wake Forest University) Schaffer, Matthew (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the response of stock prices to monetary policy, distinguishing effects of exogenous shocks from “Delphic” shocks that reveal the Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic forecasts. To decompose monetary policy surprises into these separate components we construct a measure of Federal Reserve private information that exploits differences in central bank and market forecasts. Contractionary policy shocks of either type lower stock prices with exogenous shocks having a larger negative effect. There is some suggestive evidence of an asymmetry; when FOMC meetings are unscheduled or when the fed funds rate reverses direction, stock prices rise in response to a contractionary Delphic shock.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:106:y:2019:i:c:p:34-49
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25