High-frequency volatility modeling: A Markov-Switching Autoregressive Conditional Intensity model

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Year: 2021
Volume: 124
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a Markov-Switching Autoregressive Conditional Intensity (MS-ACI) model with time-varying transitional probability, and show that it can be reliably estimated via the Stochastic Approximation Expectation–Maximization algorithm. Applying our model to high-frequency transaction data, we detect two distinct regimes in the intraday volatility process: a dominant volatility regime that is observable throughout the trading day representing the risk-transferring trading activity of investors, and a minor volatility regime that concentrates around market liquidity shocks which mainly capture impacts of firm-specific news arrivals. We propose a novel daily volatility decomposition based on the two detected volatility regimes.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:dyncon:v:124:y:2021:i:c:s0165188921000129
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25