Testing for weak-form efficiency of crude palm oil spot and future markets: new evidence from a GARCH unit root test with multiple structural breaks

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2015
Volume: 47
Issue: 16
Pages: 1710-1721

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

There is a sizeable literature that tests for weak-form efficiency in commodity and energy spot and future prices. While many studies now allow for multiple structural breaks to address the criticism that conventional unit root tests have low power to reject the unit root null in the presence of structural change, the extant literature overlooks the fact that conventional unit root tests are biased in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We apply a recently developed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) unit root test with multiple structural breaks to crude palm oil spot and future prices and find much more evidence against weak-form efficiency than that found using tests that fail to allow for conditional heteroscedasticity. Our results point to the importance of allowing for heteroscedasticity when testing for efficiency in commodity and energy spot and future prices.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:16:p:1710-1721
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25