Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation

B-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics
Year: 2016
Volume: 8
Issue: 2
Pages: 39-60

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Through a series of decision tasks involving colored cards, we provide separate measures of Bayesian updating and non-probabilistic reasoning skills. We apply these measures to (and are the first to study) a common-value Dutch auction. This format is more salient than the strategically equivalent first-price auction and silent Dutch formats in hinting that one should condition one's estimate of the value on having the highest bid. Both Bayesian updating skills and non-probabilistic reasoning skills are shown to help subjects correct for the winner's curse, as does the saliency of the active-clock Dutch format. (JEL D12, D44, D83)

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmic:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:39-60
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25