Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

A-Tier
Journal: Review of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2023
Volume: 105
Issue: 1
Pages: 125-142

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parameterization conducive to model comparison are also provided. We apply our framework to the U.S. economy. Scenario analysis suggests that once accounting for the influence of structural shocks on the autoregressive coefficients, the effects of monetary policy on economic activity are larger and more persistent than in an otherwise standard TVP-VAR. Our results also indicate that cost-push shocks play a prominent role in understanding historical changes in inflation-gap persistence.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:tpr:restat:v:105:y:2023:i:1:p:125-142
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25