Learning about the consumption risk exposure of firms

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics
Year: 2024
Volume: 152
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Kim, Yongjin (not in RePEc) Kuehn, Lars-Alexander (not in RePEc) Li, Kai (Peking University)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We structurally estimate an investment-based asset pricing model, in which firms' exposure to macroeconomic risk is unknown. Bayesian beliefs about this parameter are updated from firms' and industry peers' comovement between their productivity and consumption growth. The model implies that discount rates rise endogenously with the perceived risk exposure of firms, thereby depressing investment and valuation ratios. We test these predictions in the data and find strong support for them. We also confirm that cross-sectional learning from peers is crucial and that alternative Bayesian risk estimates, which ignore peer observations, do not predict firm variables.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jfinec:v:152:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x2300199x
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25