Bank Risk-Taking, Credit Allocation, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2026
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
Pages: 384-415

Authors (4)

Xiaoming Li (not in RePEc) Zheng Liu (Federal Reserve Bank of San Fr...) Yuchao Peng (not in RePEc) Zhiwei Xu (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using confidential loan-level data, we examine how Basel III influenced the responses of bank risk-taking to monetary policy shocks in China. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, exploiting disparities in lending behavior between high- and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. Our findings reveal a novel risk-weighting channel through which monetary policy easing significantly reduced bank risk-taking. However, this risk reduction was achieved by shifting lending towards ostensibly low-risk state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with government guarantees, despite their lower average productivity. Our findings suggest a trade-off facing China's monetary policy between curbing bank risks and addressing credit misallocation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:18:y:2026:i:1:p:384-415
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25