Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2023
Volume: 39
Issue: 4
Pages: 1518-1547

Authors (4)

Wang, Xiaoqian (not in RePEc) Hyndman, Rob J. (Monash University) Li, Feng (Peking University) Kang, Yanfei (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of mainstream forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced for a target time series is now widely used to improve accuracy through the integration of information gleaned from different sources, thereby avoiding the need to identify a single “best” forecast. Combination schemes have evolved from simple combination methods without estimation to sophisticated techniques involving time-varying weights, nonlinear combinations, correlations among components, and cross-learning. They include combining point forecasts and combining probabilistic forecasts. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the extensive literature on forecast combinations and a reference to available open-source software implementations. We discuss the potential and limitations of various methods and highlight how these ideas have developed over time. Some crucial issues concerning the utility of forecast combinations are also surveyed. Finally, we conclude with current research gaps and potential insights for future research.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:4:p:1518-1547
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25