Slow Moving Debt Crises

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2019
Volume: 109
Issue: 9
Pages: 3229-63

Authors (2)

Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern University) Iván Werning (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study slow moving debt crises: self-fulfilling equilibria in which high interest rates, due to the fear of a future default, lead to a gradual but faster accumulation of debt, ultimately validating investors' fear. We show that slow moving crises arise in a variety of settings, both when fiscal policy follows a given rule and when it is chosen by an optimizing government. A key assumption, in all these settings, is that the borrowing government cannot commit to issue a fixed amount of bonds in a given period. We discuss how multiplicity is avoided for low debt levels, for sufficiently responsive fiscal policy rules, and for long enough debt maturities. When the equilibrium is unique, debt dynamics are characterized by a tipping point, below which debt falls and stabilizes and above which debt and default rates grow.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:9:p:3229-63
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25