A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review: Insights
Year: 2023
Volume: 5
Issue: 3
Pages: 347-56

Authors (2)

Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern University) Iván Werning (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This note isolates an overlooked economic force for the ruble to appreciate in response to international sanctions limiting exports to Russia. The intuition is that when Russians are unable to buy the mix of foreign goods they wish, foreign goods become less attractive, increasing demand for domestic goods. To reestablish an equilibrium, a real appreciation is needed to raise the relative price of domestic goods and incentivize imports from nonsanctioning countries. We also review well-known forces for depreciation. Our analysis emphasizes that the exchange rate is an inadequate signal of the welfare impact and of the effectiveness of sanctions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aerins:v:5:y:2023:i:3:p:347-56
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25