Lame Ducks and Local Fiscal Policy: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Portugal

A-Tier
Journal: Economic Journal
Year: 2020
Volume: 130
Issue: 626
Pages: 511-533

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

I use the introduction of mayoral term limits in Portugal to identify how an exogenous variation in eligibility for office affects policy decisions. Relying on a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, I find that term-limited incumbents pursue more conservative fiscal policies than those who are eligible for re-election. Heterogeneous effects show that the treatment effects primarily reflect the behaviour of right-leaning, term-limited incumbents. Results are in line with a model in which right-leaning officeholders try to maintain a good reputation by pleasing an electorate prone to redistribution while they are eligible, but adopt policies closer to their true preferences when term limited.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:econjl:v:130:y:2020:i:626:p:511-533.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25