Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2023
Volume: 55
Issue: 8
Pages: 2215-2241

Authors (2)

TOMASZ ŁYZIAK (Narodowy Bank Polski) XUGUANG SIMON SHENG (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

By carefully matching the data sets from the Michigan Survey of Consumers with the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that there exists substantial heterogeneity in the propensity of U.S. households to learn from experts in forming inflation expectations. Additional results for a group of European economies broadly confirm this observation. We advance an extended version of the sticky‐information model to analyze disagreement in consumer inflation expectations. Besides differences in consumers' propensities to learn, disagreement in our model arises from heterogeneity in consumers' fundamental inflation and past expectations and experts' different views about future inflation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:55:y:2023:i:8:p:2215-2241
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25