Explaining Forward Exchange Bias . . . Intraday.

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 1995
Volume: 50
Issue: 4
Pages: 1321-29

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of fixed-rate crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the European Monetary System, we find this prediction is borne out. Copyright 1995 by American Finance Association.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:50:y:1995:i:4:p:1321-29
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25