Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2025
Volume: 17
Issue: 2
Pages: 315-41

Authors (3)

Hee Soo Kim (not in RePEc) Christian Matthes (University of Notre Dame) Toàn Phan (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past 60 years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to 20 months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to the increased severity of weather in the United States, at least at the macroeconomic level.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:2:p:315-41
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25