After the Paris Agreement: Measuring the Global Decarbonization Wedges From National Energy Scenarios

Abstract

The new bottom-up approach of the Paris agreement calls for a better understanding of the domestic dimension of development pathways and of the implications for global emissions trajectory. To this end, it is of strategic importance to provide a common framework that makes it possible to identify the key decarbonization wedges at the national level and to highlight the potential benefits of international cooperation. The article proposes an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology based on sectoral energy service indicators and on a specific decomposition in the power sector for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. It is applied to national deep decarbonization pathways elaborated in the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project (DDPP) by the sixteen largest GHG emitting countries. In a global perspective, the results reveal the key role of energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy carriers in the industry sector, deployment of renewables in the power sector and, to a lesser extent, coal/gas substitution, and efficiency and energy decarbonization in the transport sector. The analysis also calls for a deeper understanding of the role a reduction in energy-service demand can play in mitigation scenarios and of the respective contribution for industry of energy efficiency and structural change.