Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Using an expanded version of the purchasing-power-parity condition we construct simultaneous equation models for three key exchange rates which incorporate meaningful long-run equilibrium relationships and complex short-run dynamics. We show that fully dynamic out-of-sample forecasts from these models are capable of significantly outperforming those of a random walk model over horizons as short as 3 months, and that they are also more accurate than the vast majority of professional forecasts. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology