Heterogeneity in the effect of federal spending on local crime: Evidence from causal forests

B-Tier
Journal: Regional Science and Urban Economics
Year: 2019
Volume: 78
Issue: C

Authors (2)

Hoffman, Ian (not in RePEc) Mast, Evan (University of Notre Dame)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Federal place-based policy could improve efficiency if it targets areas with large amenity or agglomeration externalities. We begin by showing that positive shocks to federal spending in a county and their associated economic stimulus substantially decrease crime, an important amenity. We then employ two machine learning algorithms—causal trees and causal forests—to conduct a data-driven search for heterogeneity in this effect. The effect is larger in below-median income counties, and the difference is economically and statistically significant. This heterogeneity likely improves the efficiency of the many place-based policies that target such areas.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:regeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:s0166046219300122
Journal Field
Urban
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25