How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2022
Volume: 130
Issue: 10
Pages: 2731 - 2769

Authors (1)

Luis R. Martínez (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approximately 35%. Adjusting the data for manipulation leads to a more nuanced view on the recent economic success of autocracies.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/720458
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25