Cohort Size and the Marriage Market: Explaining Nearly a Century of Changes in US Marriage Rates

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Labor Economics
Year: 2024
Volume: 42
Issue: 3
Pages: 877 - 920

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We document that the US marriage market is characterized by two systematic empirical patterns. First, there is a quantitatively large, strong, and persistent negative relationship between changes in cohort size and marriage rates of women. Second, the same negative correlation holds for men. We then establish the features a model should possess to generate these patterns. A standard matching model with search frictions is rejected by the data because it produces a negative relationship for women but a positive relationship for men. We generalize the standard model to show under what conditions it rationalizes both patterns.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/724047
Journal Field
Labor
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25