Investment and Uncertainty: Precipitating the Great Depression in the United States

C-Tier
Journal: Economica
Year: 2006
Volume: 73
Issue: 291
Pages: 393-412

Authors (2)

DAVID GREASLEY (not in RePEc) JAKOB B. MADSEN (Monash University)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890–2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset of the depression: rather, its slump helped to propel the wider collapse.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:econom:v:73:y:2006:i:291:p:393-412
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25