Is uncertainty the same everywhere? Advanced versus emerging economies

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Modeling
Year: 2021
Volume: 101
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Kumar, Abhishek (not in RePEc) Mallick, Sushanta (Queen Mary University of Londo...) Sinha, Apra (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Considering the frequency of uncertainty shocks, this study examines various uncertainties across countries. Recent literature shows conflicting evidence on whether these uncertainties are supply- or demand-driven shocks. Using quarterly data from the United States and India, this study shows that although uncertainty shocks are demand shocks in advanced economies (e.g., the United States) with a contractionary output effect, they behave as supply shocks in emerging economies (e.g., India) with an inflationary effect. In contrast to the United States, asymmetry in India results from a high and positive correlation between uncertainty and oil price shocks. This study distinguishes between international and domestic uncertainty for India and finds a significant spillover of international uncertainty. Furthermore, the study shows that domestic uncertainty also relates to the primary sector, where rainfall emerges as a source of domestic uncertainty, thereby contributing to the inflationary effect. Therefore, uncertainty shocks influence monetary policy response differently.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecmode:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001139
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25