Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
We present a procedure for evaluating ex ante the effects of alternative paths of a monetary policy tool (the federal funds rate in our illustrations) on output and the price level within a variant of a widely used vector autoregressive model of the U.S. economy. This exercise is a supplement to, or even an alternative to, analysis that relies on a particular structural model. Illustrations of the method are provided by evaluating the effects of changes in the funds rate target. Additionally, the Taylor rule is used to generate target funds rates for different target inflation rates, and the effects of these are evaluated.