The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Year: 2018
Volume: 87
Issue: C
Pages: 96-111

Authors (2)

Bakas, Dimitrios (Nottingham Trent University) Triantafyllou, Athanasios (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine the impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices. Using several alternative measures of economic uncertainty for the U.S., we estimate their effects on commodity price volatility through VAR analysis. We find that the latent uncertainty shocks have the most significant impact on commodity price volatility when compared to observable measures of economic uncertainty. In specific, our results show that the unobservable economic uncertainty measures of Jurado et al. (2015) have a significant and long-lasting positive effect on the volatility of commodity prices. Our findings indicate that a positive shock in unobservable macroeconomic and financial uncertainty leads to a persistent increase in the volatility of the broad commodity market index and of individual commodity prices, with the macroeconomic effect being more significant. Finally, we show that the impact is stronger in energy commodities compared to agricultural and metals markets.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jimfin:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:96-111
Journal Field
International
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24