Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
We investigate whether luck is a relevant factor in election outcomes by analyzing how a country’s change in terms of trade close to the election impacts the probability of reelection of the incumbent party. We draw from economic and political data on countries around the world and find that changes in the terms of trade one year before the election affect the reelection probability. Import prices are the main drivers of the result and elections in non-OECD countries are the most affected by terms of trade.