Nonlinearity, Breaks, and Long-Range Dependence in Time-Series Models

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2016
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Pages: 23-41

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as parameter changes and threshold effects, in time series models and apply our modeling framework to daily realized measures of integrated variance. We develop asymptotic theory for parameter estimation and propose two model-building procedures. The methodology is applied to stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the period 2000 to 2009. We find strong evidence of nonlinear effects in financial volatility. An out-of-sample analysis shows that modeling these effects can improve forecast performance. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:34:y:2016:i:1:p:23-41
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26