Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2008
Volume: 40
Issue: 5
Pages: 837-866

Authors (2)

PHILIPPE BACCHETTA (Université de Lausanne) ERIC VAN WINCOOP (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price in the context of a dynamic noisy rational expectations model. We show that the wedge reduces asset price volatility and disconnects the price from the present value of future payoffs. The impact of the higher order wedge on the equilibrium price can be quantitatively large.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:5:p:837-866
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24