Limiting fiscal procyclicality: Evidence from resource-dependent countries

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Modeling
Year: 2022
Volume: 106
Issue: C

Authors (5)

Coutinho, Leonor (not in RePEc) Georgiou, Dimitrios (not in RePEc) Heracleous, Maria (not in RePEc) Michaelides, Alexander (Centre for Economic Policy Res...) Tsani, Stella (National)

Score contribution per author:

0.201 = (α=2.01 / 5 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We provide evidence that fiscal policy in resource-dependent countries is procyclical. The empirical analysis reveals that on average real government consumption in these countries tends to significantly rise (fall) in good (bad) times. To control for endogeneity we use an instrumental variable for GDP growth that arises naturally, namely the growth in commodity prices of the main natural resource export. We also find that fiscal policy procyclicality is lower in more democratic regimes, and in countries with stronger checks and balances on the executive. Operating a sovereign wealth fund can help limit fiscal policy procyclicality in some instances, while we find no such evidence for fiscal rules.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecmode:v:106:y:2022:i:c:s0264999321002893
Journal Field
General
Author Count
5
Added to Database
2026-01-26