Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2012
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Pages: 227-240

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

While two different streams of literature exist investigating 1) the relationship between oil prices and emerging market stock prices and 2) the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, relatively little is known about the dynamic relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and emerging market stock prices. This paper proposes and estimates a structural vector autoregression model to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables. Impulse responses are calculated in two ways (standard and the recently developed projection based methods). The model supports stylized facts. In particular, positive shocks to oil prices tend to depress emerging market stock prices and US dollar exchange rates in the short run. The model also captures stylized facts regarding movements in oil prices. A positive oil production shock lowers oil prices while a positive shock to real economic activity increases oil prices. There is also evidence that increases in emerging market stock prices increase oil prices.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:227-240
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24