Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2024
Volume: 56
Issue: 1
Pages: 81-114

Authors (2)

ANA BEATRIZ GALVÃO (not in RePEc) JAMES MITCHELL (Federal Reserve Bank of Clevel...)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public's subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty with objective estimates, but do not decrease trust in the statistical office.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:56:y:2024:i:1:p:81-114
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26