Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 1994
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Pages: 479-513

Authors (3)

Miller, Merton H Muthuswamy, Jayaram (not in RePEc) Whaley, Robert E (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Mean reversion in stock index basis changes has been presumed to be driven by the trading activity of stock index arbitragers. The authors propose here instead that the observed negative autocorrelation in basis changes is mainly a statistical illusion, arising because many stocks in the index portfolio trade infrequently. Even without formal arbitrage, reported basis changes would appear negatively autocorrelated as lagging stocks eventually trade and get updated. The implications of this study go beyond index arbitrage, however. The authors' analysis suggests that spurious elements may creep in whenever the price-change or return series of two securities or portfolios of securities are differenced. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:2:p:479-513
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-26