Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2025
Volume: 17
Issue: 3
Pages: 36-73

Authors (3)

Andreas Dibiasi (not in RePEc) Heiner Mikosch (Eidgenössische Technische Hoch...) Samad Sarferaz (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers' expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across types and sectors. They help explain firms' reactions to the shock, which provides evidence for the relevance of real options channels. We compare the findings to DSGE and VAR results.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:36-73
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-26