Information Aggregation in Polls

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2008
Volume: 98
Issue: 3
Pages: 864-96

Authors (2)

John Morgan Phillip C. Stocken (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study information transmission via polling. A policymaker polls constituents, who differ in their information and ideology, to determine policy. Full revelation is an equilibrium in a poll with a small sample, but not with a large one. In large polls, full information aggregation can arise in an equilibrium where constituents endogenously sort themselves into centrists, who respond truthfully, and extremists, who do not. We find polling statistics that ignore strategic behavior yield biased estimators and mischaracterize the poll's margin of error. We construct estimators that account for strategic behavior. Finally, we compare polls and elections.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:3:p:864-96
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26