Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2015
Volume: 47
Issue: 4
Pages: 673-699

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters () and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting model for inflation. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations in fitting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in fitting macro and survey data simultaneously. In other words, survey data contain additional information that is not present in the macro data alone.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:4:p:673-699
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26