Combining Judgment and Models

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2010
Volume: 42
Issue: 8
Pages: 1641-1662

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper proposes a parsimonious and model‐consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural microfounded models and judgmental forecasts. The method delivers along several dimensions. First, it improves the forecasting performance of the model. Second, it allows interpreting the judgmental forecasts through the lens of the model. Finally, it provides a framework to assess the informational content of the judgmental forecasters. I illustrate the proposed methodology with a real‐time forecasting exercise using a simple neo‐Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:8:p:1641-1662
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-26