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α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
The Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) status is a long-standing problem that occupies a priority role in the European policy agenda, even more during the post-COVID-19 outbreak. This paper investigates whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic and the quality of institutions affect the probability of being NEET in Italy. In treating the 15–34 unemployed and inactive cohort jointly, our hypothesis is that the COVID-19 exposure has increased the risk of being NEET during the second quarter of 2020 whereas the quality of institutions could mitigate it. Estimates on a unique dataset obtained by merging the Italian Labor Force Survey with the Institutional Quality Index dataset, confirms it. In addition, in dealing the 15–24 and 25–34 cohorts separately, our results show that individuals in the older age group are the most affected. Finally, “good deeds” implemented by institutions, such as active policies conducted at regional level, are a further educational investment that could protect from becoming NEET.