Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of carbon pricing and other mitigation policies for G20 countries in 2030. Emissions prices implicit in countries’ Paris Agreement pledges vary from above $70 per ton of CO2 in eight countries to less than $35 in seven countries. A $70 carbon price raises revenues of 1.5% of GDP or more for most countries. The efficiency costs of a $70 carbon price are typically well below 1% of GDP while domestic environmental cobenefits (e.g., reductions in air pollution deaths) typically offset, or greatly exceed, efficiency costs. The emissions and fiscal benefits of other policies (e.g., partial pricing, taxes on individual fuels) are generally well below those of comprehensive pricing, although coal taxes are relatively effective in some cases. A combination of measures to improve energy efficiency and lower power generation emission rates has an effectiveness of around 60%–75% relative to comprehensive carbon pricing.