Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2001
Volume: 56
Issue: 2
Pages: 531-563

Authors (4)

Brad Barber (University of California-Davis) Reuven Lehavy (not in RePEc) Maureen McNichols (not in RePEc) Brett Trueman (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We document that purchasing (selling short) stocks with the most (least) favorable consensus recommendations, in conjunction with daily portfolio rebalancing and a timely response to recommendation changes, yield annual abnormal gross returns greater than four percent. Less frequent portfolio rebalancing or a delay in reacting to recommendation changes diminishes these returns; however, they remain significant for the least favorably rated stocks. We also show that high trading levels are required to capture the excess returns generated by the strategies analyzed, entailing substantial transactions costs and leading to abnormal net returns for these strategies that are not reliably greater than zero.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:2:p:531-563
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24