Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2012
Volume: 36
Issue: 9
Pages: 2632-2640

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

While the literature concerned with the predictability of stock returns is huge, surprisingly little is known when it comes to role of the choice of estimator of the predictive regression. Ideally, the choice of estimator should be rooted in the salient features of the data. In case of predictive regressions of returns there are at least three such features; (i) returns are heteroskedastic, (ii) predictors are persistent, and (iii) regression errors are correlated with predictor innovations. In this paper we examine if the accounting of these features in the estimation process has any bearing on our ability to forecast future returns. The results suggest that it does.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:9:p:2632-2640
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26