The information content of market-based measures for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: evidence from a midas analysis

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2019
Volume: 51
Issue: 51
Pages: 5623-5636

Authors (2)

Ahmed Hanoma (not in RePEc) Dieter Nautz (Freie Universität Berlin)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This article investigates the daily information content of market-based measures, such as inflation-linked swaps and breakeven inflation rates, for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that professionals account for the daily dynamics of market-based measures when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We propose a daily indicator of professionals’ inflation expectations that outperforms alternative indicators that ignore the high-frequency dynamics of market-based measures. To illustrate the usefulness of the new indicator, we provide new evidence on the (re-)anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:51:p:5623-5636
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26