Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2012
Volume: 44
Issue: 2‐3
Pages: 323-340

Authors (2)

SANDRA SCHMIDT (not in RePEc) DIETER NAUTZ (Freie Universität Berlin)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper investigates how financial experts perceive the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor‐rule‐type reaction function, we use qualitative survey expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB’s interest rate rule. While perception of monetary policy regarding inflation has become more accurate since the ECB’s clarification of the monetary policy strategy in 2003, misperception regarding the ECB’s reaction to output has increased in the financial crisis.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:2-3:p:323-340
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26