Understanding the United Kingdom's Wageless Recovery

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Central Banking
Year: 2019
Volume: 15
Issue: 5
Pages: 307-360

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The recovery of 2013 that followed the United Kingdom's Great Recession featured a rapid fall in unemployment but stagnant wage growth. Did the wage Phillips curve break down? These dynamics have two main candidate explanations: declining labor frictions, meaning lower unemployment without increasing wage growth; or a demand recovery accompanied by weak productivity, meaning unemployment fell but equilibrium wage growth remained low. This paper investigates using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring unemployment. The data favor a mix of explanations, but with the balance of evidence favoring the second. A demand recovery reduced unemployment, but wages are likely to have remained weak mainly because of poor productivity.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:5:a:8
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-26