A literature review of economic studies on carbon pricing and Australian wholesale electricity markets

Abstract

With the ongoing development of Australian anthropogenic climate change mitigation policies, there has been a steady increase in modelling studies undertaken to estimate Australian carbon prices and their impact on existing electricity markets. This article summarises some of the more prominent studies completed by many of Australia’s foremost economic modelling firms. We developed a simple approach for testing the consistency of these studies and their findings in relation to carbon pass-through. Unfortunately, we have established that the studies are entirely inconsistent in their estimation of carbon pass-through. Furthermore, we were unable to establish why the estimation of carbon pass-through varies so significantly. This has important implications for policy makers given much of the compensation to be paid to households and businesses under the Clean Energy Future package is predicated on simple assumptions of carbon pass-through. Based upon our analysis of these economic studies, our conclusion is that Australian policy makers are best guided by relying upon the numerous a posteriori estimations of pass-through in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) rather than Australian a priori studies.