A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2013
Volume: 29
Issue: 2
Pages: 311-321

Authors (2)

Savio, Nicolas D. (not in RePEc) Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos (Durham University)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:2:p:311-321
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26