Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Central Banking
Year: 2023
Volume: 19
Issue: 4
Pages: 41-83

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We analyze the behavior of inflation expectations during periods of deflation using a large cross-country data set of professional forecasters’ expectations. We find that deflation episodes are largely unanticipated by forecasters and feature much larger forecast errors than periods of high inflation rates. Furthermore, inflation expectations become more backwardlooking during deflations, especially among forecasters that are pessimistic about growth. The results have implications for a risk-management approach to monetary policy when an economy faces very low inflation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:4:a:2
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24