EFFICIENT LIKELIHOOD INFERENCE IN NONSTATIONARY UNIVARIATE MODELS

B-Tier
Journal: Econometric Theory
Year: 2004
Volume: 20
Issue: 1
Pages: 116-146

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Recent literature shows that embedding fractionally integrated time series models with spectral poles at the long-run and/or seasonal frequencies in autoregressive frameworks leads to estimators and test statistics with nonstandard limiting distributions. However, we demonstrate that when embedding such models in a general I(d) framework the resulting estimators and tests regain desirable properties from standard statistical analysis. We show the existence of a local time domain maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic normality—and under Gaussianity asymptotic efficiency. The Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests are asymptotically equivalent and chi-squared distributed under local alternatives. With independent and identically distributed Gaussian errors and a scalar parameter, we show that the tests in addition achieve the asymptotic Gaussian power envelope of all invariant unbiased tests; i.e., they are asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant unbiased against local alternatives. In a Monte Carlo study we document the finite sample superiority of the likelihood ratio test.I am grateful to Bent Jesper Christensen, Niels Haldrup, Pentti Saikkonen (the co-editor), and two anonymous referees for many useful comments and suggestions that significantly improved this paper. This work was done while the author was at the University of Aarhus, Denmark.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:cup:etheor:v:20:y:2004:i:01:p:116-146_20
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-26