Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Year: 2021
Volume: 185
Issue: C
Pages: 671-687

Authors (2)

Noussair, Charles N. (University of Arizona) Popescu, Andreea Victoria (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether comovement can emerge between two risky assets, despite their fundamentals not being correlated. The ‘Two trees’ asset pricing model developed by Cochrane et al. (2007) guides our experimental design and its predictions serve as our source of hypotheses. The model makes time-series and cross-section return predictions following a shock to one of the two assets’ dividend distributions. As the model predicts, we observe (1) positive contemporaneous correlation between the two assets, (2) positive autocorrelation in the shocked asset, and (3) time-series and cross-sectional return predictability from the dividend-price ratio. In line with the rational foundations of the model, the model's predictions have stronger support in markets with relatively sophisticated agents.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jeborg:v:185:y:2021:i:c:p:671-687
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26