MACRO UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT RISK, AND CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS

B-Tier
Journal: International Economic Review
Year: 2025
Volume: 66
Issue: 1
Pages: 287-312

Authors (2)

Joonseok Oh (Freie Universität Berlin) Anna Rogantini Picco (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for lower‐income households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro uncertainty. A heterogeneous‐agent New Keynesian model with search‐and‐matching frictions in the labor market can account for these empirical findings. The mechanism at play is a feedback loop between lower‐income households who, being subject to higher unemployment risk, contract consumption more in response to heightened uncertainty, and firms that post fewer vacancies following a drop in demand.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:iecrev:v:66:y:2025:i:1:p:287-312
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-26