Confidence, Self-Selection, and Bias in the Aggregate

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2023
Volume: 113
Issue: 7
Pages: 1933-66

Authors (3)

Benjamin Enke (not in RePEc) Thomas Graeber (not in RePEc) Ryan Oprea (University of California-Santa...)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. In betting market, auction and committee experiments, we document that some errors are strongly reduced through self-selection, while others are not affected at all or even amplified. A large part of this variation is explained by differences in the relationship between confidence and performance. In some tasks, they are positively correlated, such that self-selection attenuates errors. In other tasks, rational and biased people are equally confident, such that self-selection has no effects on aggregate quantities.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:7:p:1933-66
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-26